Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →64.7%
Napoli
21.3%
Draw
14.0%
Spal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.86
Napoli
vs
0.72
Spal
Markets
BTTS43.2%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.572.7%
Over 2.547.7%
Over 3.526.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.3%
2-0
13.1%
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
8.1%
0-0
7.4%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
5.6%
4-0
3.8%
1-2
3.7%
2-2
3.4%
4-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).