Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.3%
Spal
24.9%
Draw
24.8%
Benevento
Expected Goals (xG)
1.57
Spal
vs
1.01
Benevento
Markets
BTTS50.2%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.572.7%
Over 2.547.6%
Over 3.526.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.1%
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.3%
0-1
7.9%
0-0
7.4%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
4.9%
3-0
4.8%
2-2
4.8%
0-2
3.9%
3-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).