Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →21.2%
Morecambe
31.3%
Draw
47.5%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
0.63
Morecambe
vs
1.11
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS31.1%
Over 0.582.9%
Over 1.551.7%
Over 2.525.5%
Over 3.510.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
19.8%
0-0
17.1%
1-1
11.9%
1-0
11.4%
0-2
10.8%
1-2
6.8%
0-3
4.0%
2-1
3.9%
2-0
3.5%
1-3
2.5%
2-2
2.2%
0-4
1.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).