Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →34.7%
Fulham
29.4%
Draw
35.9%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
1.33
Fulham
vs
1.35
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS56.1%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.576.4%
Over 2.550.0%
Over 3.528.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.0%
0-0
8.6%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
8.2%
0-1
7.6%
1-0
7.4%
0-2
6.3%
2-0
6.0%
2-2
5.5%
1-3
3.7%
3-1
3.6%
0-3
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).