Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.4%
Spal
31.3%
Draw
30.3%
Parma
Expected Goals (xG)
1.02
Spal
vs
0.87
Parma
Markets
BTTS37.1%
Over 0.585.2%
Over 1.556.3%
Over 2.529.5%
Over 3.512.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.6%
0-0
14.8%
0-1
13.3%
1-1
13.2%
2-0
7.9%
2-1
6.9%
1-2
5.8%
0-2
5.7%
2-2
3.0%
3-0
2.7%
3-1
2.3%
1-3
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).