Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.5%
Southend
24.3%
Draw
24.2%
Burton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.48
Southend
vs
0.91
Burton
Markets
BTTS45.2%
Over 0.591.9%
Over 1.568.0%
Over 2.542.8%
Over 3.522.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.6%
1-1
11.3%
2-0
10.0%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
9.1%
0-0
8.1%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
4.9%
3-1
4.5%
2-2
4.2%
0-2
3.8%
3-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).