Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.5%
Derby
28.8%
Draw
20.7%
Oxford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.46
Derby
vs
0.84
Oxford
Markets
BTTS44.7%
Over 0.588.9%
Over 1.567.9%
Over 2.540.3%
Over 3.520.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.6%
1-1
13.4%
0-0
11.1%
2-0
10.6%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.4%
1-2
5.2%
3-0
5.2%
3-1
4.3%
2-2
3.8%
0-2
3.6%
4-0
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).