Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →70.0%
Milton Keynes Dons
17.0%
Draw
13.0%
Newport County
Expected Goals (xG)
2.33
Milton Keynes Dons
vs
0.89
Newport County
Markets
BTTS52.8%
Over 0.596.3%
Over 1.582.8%
Over 2.562.4%
Over 3.540.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
10.9%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.6%
3-0
8.5%
1-1
7.9%
3-1
7.5%
4-0
4.9%
4-1
4.4%
2-2
4.3%
0-1
3.9%
0-0
3.7%
1-2
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).