Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.2%
Plymouth
26.9%
Draw
32.9%
Cardiff
Expected Goals (xG)
1.48
Plymouth
vs
1.32
Cardiff
Markets
BTTS57.6%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.577.9%
Over 2.553.3%
Over 3.531.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.7%
2-1
8.8%
1-0
8.1%
1-2
7.8%
0-1
7.1%
0-0
6.9%
2-0
6.6%
2-2
5.8%
0-2
5.3%
3-1
4.4%
1-3
3.5%
3-0
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).