Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →57.2%
Carlisle
25.3%
Draw
17.5%
Hartlepool
Expected Goals (xG)
1.74
Carlisle
vs
0.86
Hartlepool
Markets
BTTS48.7%
Over 0.591.7%
Over 1.574.3%
Over 2.548.4%
Over 3.526.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.0%
1-0
11.9%
2-0
11.2%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.3%
3-0
6.5%
3-1
5.6%
0-1
5.4%
1-2
4.8%
2-2
4.2%
4-0
2.8%
0-2
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).