Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.0%
Casa Pia
29.1%
Draw
33.0%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
1.29
Casa Pia
vs
1.19
Nacional
Markets
BTTS51.5%
Over 0.590.7%
Over 1.571.9%
Over 2.545.2%
Over 3.523.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.8%
1-0
9.8%
0-0
9.3%
0-1
8.9%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
5.9%
2-2
4.9%
3-1
3.6%
1-3
3.0%
3-0
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).