Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.2%
Villarreal
24.1%
Draw
43.6%
Real Madrid
Expected Goals (xG)
1.41
Villarreal
vs
1.68
Real Madrid
Markets
BTTS61.7%
Over 0.595.2%
Over 1.581.6%
Over 2.559.6%
Over 3.537.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.0%
1-2
9.0%
2-1
7.6%
0-1
7.4%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.2%
1-3
5.0%
0-0
4.8%
2-0
4.5%
3-1
3.6%
0-3
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).