Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.6%
Bristol City
29.2%
Draw
31.2%
Birmingham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
Bristol City
vs
1.15
Birmingham
Markets
BTTS51.1%
Over 0.590.4%
Over 1.571.7%
Over 2.544.8%
Over 3.523.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.9%
1-0
10.1%
0-0
9.6%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.5%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.4%
0-2
5.6%
2-2
4.9%
3-1
3.7%
3-0
3.3%
1-3
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).