Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →79.1%
Carlisle
13.4%
Draw
7.5%
Morecambe
Expected Goals (xG)
2.98
Carlisle
vs
0.88
Morecambe
Markets
BTTS56.0%
Over 0.597.4%
Over 1.590.2%
Over 2.574.1%
Over 3.553.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
9.4%
3-0
9.3%
2-1
8.2%
3-1
8.2%
4-0
6.9%
4-1
6.1%
1-1
6.0%
1-0
5.8%
5-0
4.1%
5-1
3.6%
2-2
3.6%
3-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).