Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →57.7%
Setubal
24.3%
Draw
17.9%
Pacos Ferreira
Expected Goals (xG)
1.56
Setubal
vs
0.73
Pacos Ferreira
Markets
BTTS40.5%
Over 0.590.4%
Over 1.566.3%
Over 2.540.3%
Over 3.520.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.2%
2-0
12.3%
1-1
11.0%
0-0
9.6%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.9%
3-0
6.4%
3-1
4.7%
1-2
4.2%
2-2
3.3%
0-2
2.7%
4-0
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).