Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →21.9%
Mainz
25.6%
Draw
52.5%
Dortmund
Expected Goals (xG)
1.03
Mainz
vs
1.72
Dortmund
Markets
BTTS53.7%
Over 0.592.8%
Over 1.576.9%
Over 2.551.9%
Over 3.529.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.2%
0-1
10.1%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
9.4%
0-0
7.2%
2-1
5.9%
1-0
5.7%
1-3
5.6%
0-3
5.4%
2-2
5.0%
2-0
3.4%
2-3
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).