Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.3%
Arouca
22.7%
Draw
22.0%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
2.00
Arouca
vs
1.20
Estrela
Markets
BTTS61.2%
Over 0.595.4%
Over 1.583.6%
Over 2.562.2%
Over 3.539.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.1%
1-0
7.5%
3-1
6.5%
2-2
5.9%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.4%
0-0
4.6%
0-1
4.3%
3-2
3.9%
4-1
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).