Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →84.1%
Sp Lisbon
11.2%
Draw
4.6%
Setubal
Expected Goals (xG)
2.67
Sp Lisbon
vs
0.47
Setubal
Markets
BTTS34.4%
Over 0.595.9%
Over 1.581.7%
Over 2.560.6%
Over 3.538.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
15.5%
3-0
13.8%
1-0
11.9%
4-0
9.2%
2-1
7.2%
3-1
6.4%
1-1
5.2%
5-0
4.9%
4-1
4.3%
0-0
4.1%
5-1
2.3%
0-1
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).