Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.2%
Malaga
28.7%
Draw
26.2%
Burgos
Expected Goals (xG)
1.26
Malaga
vs
0.88
Burgos
Markets
BTTS41.8%
Over 0.588.4%
Over 1.563.0%
Over 2.536.1%
Over 3.516.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.9%
1-1
12.9%
0-0
11.6%
0-1
10.5%
2-0
9.3%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
5.8%
0-2
4.6%
3-0
3.9%
2-2
3.6%
3-1
3.4%
1-3
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).