Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.8%
Sp Braga
26.0%
Draw
41.2%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
1.14
Sp Braga
vs
1.32
Benfica
Markets
BTTS49.3%
Over 0.592.0%
Over 1.569.9%
Over 2.544.6%
Over 3.523.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.3%
0-1
11.8%
1-0
10.3%
1-2
8.5%
0-0
8.0%
0-2
7.4%
2-1
7.4%
2-0
5.6%
2-2
4.8%
1-3
3.7%
0-3
3.3%
3-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).