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17 Aug 2025 · 18:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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13.7%
Alverca
19.0%
Draw
67.4%
Sp Braga

Expected Goals (xG)

0.79

Alverca

vs
2.06

Sp Braga

Markets

BTTS47.1%
Over 0.594.6%
Over 1.577.3%
Over 2.554.2%
Over 3.531.9%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
12.4%
0-2
12.3%
1-2
9.7%
1-1
9.0%
0-3
8.5%
1-3
6.7%
0-0
5.4%
1-0
5.0%
0-4
4.4%
2-2
3.8%
2-1
3.7%
1-4
3.4%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).