Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →89.4%
Benfica
7.9%
Draw
2.8%
Chaves
Expected Goals (xG)
3.09
Benfica
vs
0.41
Chaves
Markets
BTTS31.7%
Over 0.597.1%
Over 1.586.2%
Over 2.567.9%
Over 3.546.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
14.9%
2-0
14.5%
4-0
11.5%
1-0
9.5%
5-0
7.1%
3-1
6.1%
2-1
5.9%
4-1
4.7%
1-1
3.6%
5-1
2.9%
0-0
2.9%
0-1
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).