Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →76.1%
Brighton
17.3%
Draw
6.6%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
2.40
Brighton
vs
0.61
Watford
Markets
BTTS42.4%
Over 0.594.0%
Over 1.581.2%
Over 2.557.8%
Over 3.535.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.2%
3-0
11.4%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
8.7%
1-1
8.2%
3-1
6.9%
4-0
6.8%
0-0
6.0%
4-1
4.1%
5-0
3.3%
2-2
2.6%
1-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).