Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.9%
Middlesbrough
27.8%
Draw
21.2%
Swansea
Expected Goals (xG)
1.53
Middlesbrough
vs
0.90
Swansea
Markets
BTTS47.6%
Over 0.590.2%
Over 1.570.9%
Over 2.543.8%
Over 3.522.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.1%
1-0
12.4%
2-0
10.3%
0-0
9.8%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.9%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
5.2%
3-1
4.7%
2-2
4.2%
0-2
3.6%
3-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).