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DHT: 11CSV

23 Apr 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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44.7%
Kidderminster
31.1%
Draw
24.3%
Dover Athletic

Expected Goals (xG)

1.27

Kidderminster

vs
0.86

Dover Athletic

Markets

BTTS42.6%
Over 0.587.0%
Over 1.563.8%
Over 2.535.8%
Over 3.516.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
14.1%
1-0
14.0%
0-0
13.0%
2-0
9.5%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
5.6%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
4.0%
2-2
3.5%
3-1
3.5%
1-3
1.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).