Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →67.2%
Sp Gijon
21.1%
Draw
11.7%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.85
Sp Gijon
vs
0.61
Lugo
Markets
BTTS38.4%
Over 0.591.5%
Over 1.570.3%
Over 2.544.5%
Over 3.523.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.9%
2-0
14.6%
1-1
9.6%
3-0
9.0%
2-1
8.9%
0-0
8.5%
3-1
5.5%
0-1
5.3%
4-0
4.2%
1-2
3.0%
2-2
2.7%
4-1
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).