Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.1%
Sporting Gijón
24.2%
Draw
34.8%
Malaga
Expected Goals (xG)
1.55
Sporting Gijón
vs
1.41
Malaga
Markets
BTTS59.5%
Over 0.595.0%
Over 1.579.4%
Over 2.556.9%
Over 3.534.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.2%
2-1
8.8%
1-0
8.1%
1-2
8.0%
0-1
7.4%
2-0
6.2%
2-2
6.2%
0-2
5.1%
0-0
5.0%
3-1
4.5%
1-3
3.8%
3-0
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).