Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.5%
Bari
30.7%
Draw
36.8%
Perugia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.12
Bari
vs
1.21
Perugia
Markets
BTTS48.7%
Over 0.589.0%
Over 1.569.0%
Over 2.541.3%
Over 3.520.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.0%
0-1
10.4%
1-0
9.6%
1-2
8.0%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
7.1%
2-0
6.1%
2-2
4.5%
1-3
3.2%
0-3
2.9%
3-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).