Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →30.1%
Brentford
26.8%
Draw
43.2%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
1.38
Brentford
vs
1.68
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS62.4%
Over 0.593.8%
Over 1.582.5%
Over 2.559.0%
Over 3.536.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.4%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
6.6%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
6.2%
1-3
5.1%
1-0
5.0%
2-0
4.5%
0-3
3.7%
2-3
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).