Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.6%
Barcelona
21.9%
Draw
25.5%
Real Madrid
Expected Goals (xG)
2.02
Barcelona
vs
1.36
Real Madrid
Markets
BTTS64.8%
Over 0.596.4%
Over 1.585.4%
Over 2.565.8%
Over 3.543.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
9.5%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.9%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
6.4%
3-0
4.7%
0-1
4.4%
3-2
4.3%
0-0
3.6%
4-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).