Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →57.6%
Plymouth
20.7%
Draw
21.7%
Burton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.87
Plymouth
vs
1.04
Burton
Markets
BTTS53.8%
Over 0.595.4%
Over 1.577.8%
Over 2.555.6%
Over 3.533.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.9%
1-1
9.7%
2-0
9.5%
0-1
6.6%
3-1
6.2%
3-0
5.9%
1-2
5.5%
2-2
5.2%
0-0
4.6%
3-2
3.2%
0-2
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).