Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →58.6%
Derby
21.6%
Draw
19.7%
Oxford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.74
Derby
vs
0.88
Oxford
Markets
BTTS47.3%
Over 0.593.6%
Over 1.572.7%
Over 2.548.6%
Over 3.526.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.6%
2-0
11.0%
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.7%
0-1
7.3%
3-0
6.4%
0-0
6.4%
3-1
5.6%
1-2
4.9%
2-2
4.3%
0-2
2.8%
4-0
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).