Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →9.0%
Derby
26.0%
Draw
65.0%
Burnley
Expected Goals (xG)
0.42
Derby
vs
1.56
Burnley
Markets
BTTS28.1%
Over 0.585.5%
Over 1.559.7%
Over 2.531.9%
Over 3.514.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
20.7%
0-2
16.7%
0-0
14.5%
1-1
9.9%
0-3
8.7%
1-2
7.1%
1-0
5.1%
1-3
3.7%
0-4
3.4%
2-1
1.9%
2-2
1.5%
1-4
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).