⚽ FootballData
1 – 4
AHT: 11CSV

27 Jan 2026 · 19:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

View all models →
24.8%
Newport County
25.6%
Draw
49.5%
Accrington

Expected Goals (xG)

0.94

Newport County

vs
1.45

Accrington

Markets

BTTS46.0%
Over 0.591.3%
Over 1.568.3%
Over 2.542.7%
Over 3.521.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
13.8%
1-1
12.0%
0-2
9.7%
1-0
9.1%
1-2
9.1%
0-0
8.7%
2-1
5.8%
0-3
4.7%
1-3
4.4%
2-2
4.2%
2-0
4.0%
2-3
2.0%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).