Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →35.6%
Morecambe
26.3%
Draw
38.1%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.20
Morecambe
vs
1.25
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS49.3%
Over 0.591.9%
Over 1.569.7%
Over 2.544.3%
Over 3.523.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.4%
0-1
11.3%
1-0
10.9%
0-0
8.1%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
6.2%
2-2
4.8%
1-3
3.4%
3-1
3.1%
0-3
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).