Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →53.0%
Aves
27.7%
Draw
19.3%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
Aves
vs
0.66
Tondela
Markets
BTTS35.0%
Over 0.586.8%
Over 1.558.4%
Over 2.531.9%
Over 3.514.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.7%
0-0
13.2%
2-0
12.0%
1-1
11.5%
0-1
9.7%
2-1
7.9%
3-0
5.3%
1-2
4.0%
3-1
3.5%
0-2
3.0%
2-2
2.6%
4-0
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).