Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →89.8%
Sp Lisbon
7.9%
Draw
2.3%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
2.96
Sp Lisbon
vs
0.32
Tondela
Markets
BTTS25.5%
Over 0.596.4%
Over 1.583.7%
Over 2.563.5%
Over 3.541.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
16.6%
3-0
16.3%
4-0
12.1%
1-0
11.4%
5-0
7.2%
2-1
5.2%
3-1
5.2%
4-1
3.8%
0-0
3.6%
1-1
3.4%
5-1
2.3%
0-1
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).