Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.7%
Chesterfield
23.1%
Draw
36.3%
Swindon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.59
Chesterfield
vs
1.48
Swindon
Markets
BTTS61.1%
Over 0.595.8%
Over 1.580.7%
Over 2.559.2%
Over 3.536.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.5%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.1%
1-0
7.8%
0-1
7.3%
2-2
6.4%
2-0
5.8%
0-2
5.1%
3-1
4.6%
0-0
4.2%
1-3
4.0%
3-2
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).