Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.3%
Chaves
24.7%
Draw
36.0%
Portimonense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.38
Chaves
vs
1.31
Portimonense
Markets
BTTS54.2%
Over 0.593.8%
Over 1.574.5%
Over 2.550.6%
Over 3.528.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.7%
1-0
9.9%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.0%
2-0
6.5%
0-0
6.2%
0-2
5.8%
2-2
5.6%
3-1
3.9%
1-3
3.5%
3-0
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).