Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →22.5%
Carlisle
27.0%
Draw
50.5%
Northampton
Expected Goals (xG)
0.79
Carlisle
vs
1.35
Northampton
Markets
BTTS39.9%
Over 0.588.8%
Over 1.562.5%
Over 2.536.1%
Over 3.516.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
16.4%
1-1
12.0%
0-0
11.2%
0-2
10.7%
1-0
9.8%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
5.0%
0-3
4.8%
1-3
3.8%
2-0
3.7%
2-2
3.3%
0-4
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).