Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →9.5%
Casa Pia
18.8%
Draw
71.7%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
0.69
Casa Pia
vs
2.23
Benfica
Markets
BTTS45.3%
Over 0.594.0%
Over 1.579.5%
Over 2.555.9%
Over 3.533.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
13.4%
0-1
11.4%
0-3
9.9%
1-2
9.3%
1-1
9.0%
1-3
6.9%
0-0
6.0%
0-4
5.5%
1-4
3.8%
2-2
3.2%
1-0
3.1%
2-1
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).