Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.8%
Spal
30.8%
Draw
26.4%
Brescia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.29
Spal
vs
0.96
Brescia
Markets
BTTS46.1%
Over 0.588.2%
Over 1.567.1%
Over 2.539.1%
Over 3.519.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.3%
1-0
12.3%
0-0
11.8%
0-1
8.8%
2-0
8.8%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
4.9%
2-2
4.0%
3-0
3.8%
3-1
3.6%
1-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).