Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →70.0%
Estoril
17.2%
Draw
12.8%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
2.28
Estoril
vs
0.85
Tondela
Markets
BTTS51.0%
Over 0.596.0%
Over 1.581.6%
Over 2.560.5%
Over 3.538.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.4%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.7%
3-0
8.6%
1-1
8.1%
3-1
7.3%
4-0
4.9%
4-1
4.2%
2-2
4.1%
0-1
4.1%
0-0
4.0%
1-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).