Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.3%
Ath Bilbao
29.7%
Draw
25.0%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
1.25
Ath Bilbao
vs
0.85
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS41.2%
Over 0.587.5%
Over 1.562.4%
Over 2.535.1%
Over 3.516.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.0%
1-1
13.3%
0-0
12.5%
0-1
10.1%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
5.5%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
4.0%
2-2
3.5%
3-1
3.4%
1-3
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).