Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →70.7%
Elche
18.9%
Draw
10.4%
Villarreal B
Expected Goals (xG)
2.04
Elche
vs
0.63
Villarreal B
Markets
BTTS40.5%
Over 0.593.2%
Over 1.574.5%
Over 2.549.9%
Over 3.527.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.4%
1-0
14.2%
3-0
9.8%
2-1
9.1%
1-1
8.8%
0-0
6.8%
3-1
6.2%
4-0
5.0%
0-1
4.4%
4-1
3.1%
2-2
2.8%
1-2
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).