Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →61.7%
Arsenal
23.8%
Draw
14.6%
Newcastle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.98
Arsenal
vs
0.88
Newcastle
Markets
BTTS51.8%
Over 0.592.9%
Over 1.579.3%
Over 2.554.4%
Over 3.532.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.4%
2-0
11.2%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
3-0
7.4%
0-0
7.1%
3-1
6.5%
1-2
4.4%
2-2
4.3%
4-0
3.7%
0-1
3.7%
4-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).