Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.6%
Ponferradina
27.9%
Draw
25.5%
Amorebieta
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
Ponferradina
vs
0.89
Amorebieta
Markets
BTTS43.1%
Over 0.589.2%
Over 1.564.7%
Over 2.538.0%
Over 3.518.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.6%
1-1
12.8%
0-0
10.8%
0-1
9.9%
2-0
9.5%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
5.8%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
4.2%
2-2
3.8%
3-1
3.7%
1-3
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).