Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →68.9%
Arsenal
20.4%
Draw
10.7%
Leeds
Expected Goals (xG)
2.24
Arsenal
vs
0.80
Leeds
Markets
BTTS50.4%
Over 0.594.0%
Over 1.581.9%
Over 2.558.6%
Over 3.536.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.0%
1-1
9.8%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
9.5%
3-0
9.0%
3-1
7.2%
0-0
6.0%
4-0
5.0%
4-1
4.0%
2-2
3.8%
1-2
3.4%
3-2
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).