Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.6%
Estrela
30.2%
Draw
33.2%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
1.01
Estrela
vs
0.94
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS38.1%
Over 0.586.3%
Over 1.557.3%
Over 2.530.9%
Over 3.513.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.9%
0-1
14.0%
0-0
13.7%
1-1
12.9%
2-0
7.2%
2-1
6.8%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
3.2%
3-0
2.4%
3-1
2.3%
1-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).