Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →62.8%
Stevenage
22.0%
Draw
15.2%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.67
Stevenage
vs
0.66
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS38.3%
Over 0.591.2%
Over 1.566.7%
Over 2.541.2%
Over 3.520.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.2%
2-0
13.6%
1-1
9.8%
2-1
9.0%
0-0
8.8%
3-0
7.6%
0-1
7.3%
3-1
5.0%
1-2
3.5%
4-0
3.2%
2-2
2.9%
0-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).